Iowa Preview

THE GAME----Ohio State @ Iowa, 8:00 p.m., 9/30/06

The game is Saturday night, 8:00 p.m., from Kinnick Stadium. Iowa's home turf is probably the 5th best Big Ten home venue to play at (behind The Shoe, The Big House, Penn State and Wisconsin) and a lot of the so called "experts" have been saying that OSU needs to come out and put points on the board in the first quarter to take the air out of the crowd. I agree with that to an extent, because if Iowa gets off to a great start the game will be a tougher battle than OSU could expect.

However, I again don't really see that happening. Do I think there could be a chance that Iowa wins? Yeah, maybe a small one- but I'm not impressed with Iowa's body of work as a football team to this point.

ROTTEN OPPONENTS
Iowa's opponents to this point have been Montana, @ Syracuse, Iowa State, and @ Illinois. Iowa State was the best of that bunch, and Iowa beat them at home 27-17. I think that if that game would've been on the road, Iowa would've been 3-1 instead of 4-0. The Cyclones averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry (35 carries for 171 yards) against Iowa, and the Bucks should be able to have similar success. ISU was also efficient with the pass as they were 15 for 31 for 171 yards and 1 touchdown.

The Buckeyes, to this point, are very battle tested. OSU has won at Texas and also beat a decent Penn State team in terrible weather conditions last week. This will be a big factor for the Bucks, who should be able to handle the Kinnick crowd.

Here's what the Armchair is thinking:

• Hostile crowd, that will be excited for their revenge for a 31-6 drubbing at The Shoe last fall
• Covering the tight end. Cincinnati TE Brent Celek has been the most talented pass-catching TE that OSU has seen this year, and he ended up with only 3 catches for 39 yards. Scott Chandler is the Iowa weapon that scares me the most, and at 6' 8" he will be the key to the game if Iowa if to hang with the Buckeyes. If he has under 75 yards receiving, OSU wins easily.
• Albert Young is a decent running back. I'm not sold on him being a guy that can beat OSU, but with Drew Tate running the show he can be effective. Young will get his touches, but I'm not seeing a 100 yard day from Young. Young only has a 4.1 ypc average, which against the defenses he's played against is not very good.
• Drew Tate scares the hell out of me. He completes nearly 63% of his passes, has 687 yards passing and 7 touchdown passes to only 2 interceptions. We've seen the Ohio State defense give up some relatively gaudy offensive numbers but have had timely turnovers from the opponent's offfense. If OSU doesn't generate those turnovers, everyone will be intently tuned into the ABC broadcast at 10:45 pm when this one is winding down. If OSU is to lose, it will be because of a Drew Tate type QB that runs an efficient, turnover free offense that doesn't beat itself at home. I guess that sentence basically sums up how a team is to beat Ohio State this year.

Now that I've talked myself into thinking this could be a closer game than I thought, let's look at the Buckeye Offense. I'm thinking that Antonio Pittman should be able to run pretty well against this Iowa defense. Last year Pittman ran for 171 yards and Troy Smith ran for 127 yards and 2 TDs as well. I'm not seeing the Hawkeye Defense stop the Buckeye ground attack, as opponents have averaged 93 rushing yards per game, and those teams that Iowa has played has had vastly inferior rushing attacks than OSU's.

We haven't really even mentioned Ginn, Gonzalez, Robiskie or Rory Nicol yet, and once again I think OSU is facing a team that can't hang with the speed of the Buckeyes. The Bucks should have success through the air when needed as well, but this will be a run-the-ball, clock management type Tressel game that will end up being a solid beating of an Iowa team that shouldn't be able to knock off number 1.

Crystal Ball.....

I think OSU should get by Iowa. If Drew Tate does play out of his mind (which he's capable of) and passes for 279 and 2 TDs, then Iowa will make it a game. I see OSU dominating the offensive numbers in this game and being control of this game throughout it's duration. I'm also seeing a blocked punt or punt return for TD that really turns the momentum of this game around for the Buckeyes. OSU is due for a big special teams play and I think we get it on the road this weekend. I think Antonio Pittman has a big night, with 140 rushing yards and 2 TDs. He is the key to the victory for the Buckeyes.

Prediction.....I'll take the Buckeyes over the scrappy Hawkeyes, 27-20.

Also, I'd like to thank Rob Dewolf at Buckeyextra.com for linking me into their blogdom. Check out their site, it has awesome OSU stats and photos that are worth perusing. Enjoy the weekend, Ohio.