Michigan Weekend....

This may very well be my last post before Michigan, because as most people in Columbus know that the Michigan Weekend Party starts on Thursday night. Tomorrow night will be filled by a few fun activities, and on Friday a few of my buddies will be heading up to Eddie George's by 9:00 a.m. for the Colin Cowherd live broadcast. I fully expect for this to morph into an all-day High Street bar crawl with my buddies, so I'm leaving you with this Michigan preview.

When The Buckeyes are on OFFENSE:

I'll give Michigan some credit, as they do lead the nation in rush defense. They're giving up a silly 40ish yards per game on the ground, and only gave up 47 rushing yards to Wisconsin and their quality ground game. The UM front seven is very scary, and I'm hoping that Ohio State has just enough success on the ground in order to make the UM Defense honor play-action. Michigan hasn't seen a group of WR's with the skill of Ohio State's, and when Tressel goes to the spread there will be mismatches. Crossing routes will be key, and having a Heisman QB and senior at the helm will be huge for Buckeye success. The UM DB's are a shade above average, but when OSU goes 5 wide UM won't be able to hang.
Another key is the running ability of Troy Smith. I believe that this is and will be the X factor that will give OSU the edge. Smith's scrambling ability could force Michigan to have a spy on Smith, which would just provide another advantage for OSU. I see Troy Smith getting 50 yards rushing, Pittman netting 45, and Beanie Wells will play a big role with 50 yards on limited carries(9 maybe?). I know it is crazy to think 140 yards rushing on this Michigan D, but I think it will happen. The passing game will be successful, and that will open up the opportunities for the success in the running game. Once again Anthony Gonzalez is the key in the passing game, and I also see a Roy Hall TD on Senior Day, and Brian Hartline being a key contributor as well.
I see the Bucks putting up 23.

When Michigan is on offense:
I like the pressure that Ohio State brings week in and week out. The pressure is the reason for all the interceptions this year compared to last. The Buckeye knack for timely turnovers will continue on Saturday, as I think the Buckeye D and crowd will rattle junior QB Chad Henne. I haven't seen the progression from Henne to this point, and we're still yet to see if he can handle the pressure of the big game. In their biggest win of the year, Henne really didn't have to do much at Notre Dame as Michigan jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead in the first half. Mike Hart hasn't had much success against Ohio State, as he has only 1 career TD in 2 starts and had only 15 yards on 9 carries against the Bucks last year.
The Michigan weapon that does scare me the most is WR Mario Manningham. Manningham seems to be back close to 100% after knee surgery a month ago, and has had a very nice sophomore season. I like the speed in our secondary and I am fairly confident our corners will hang with him. With Malcolm Jenkins and senior Antonio Smith manning the corners, I think they should be able to keep Manningham, Arrington and Breaston in check. Michigan's offensive line is very good, and is probably just as good (if not better) than what OSU faced at Texas. The game plan should focus on being committed to stopping the run and forcing Henne into pressure 3rd and 8s when the Buckeye crowd will be going nuts.

What happens if OSU isn't having offensive success in the first half?
If OSU is somehow (I don't think it will happen though) not moving the ball in the first half, the halftime adjustment for Tressel shouldn't be too tough. He would need to look no further than what opposing teams did to the Buckeyes in '04 and '05, and that would be just moving the pocket away from the teeth of that Michigan D. Pull a guard and move the pocket to the opposite side that Lamar Woodley lines up on. We saw Cincinnati, Iowa, Michigan State, and Northwestern use this tactic against the Buckeyes and had quite a bit of success with it in '04 (see the Iowa beating we took at Kinnick Stadium, 33-7).

Where OSU's biggest advantage lies?
I think that there are three huge advantages for Ohio State in this game. The first is fairly obvious, and that is the home field advantage. Once again, Henne in a hostile environment/big game situation doesn't bode well for UM, SO BE LOUD BUCKEYE FANS!!!! The second advantage is having a senior qb running the show, and I am very confident that Troy Smith will play well enough to win on Saturday. The offensive weaponry that Smith has to work with is a touch better that what Henne has to operate with as well. The third advantage that OSU has is coaching. Tressel is 4-1 against Michigan, with the lone loss coming at Michigan in '03. Tressel seems to have Lloyd Carr's number, and that basically boils down to Tressel outcoaching Carr. I am 110% comfortable with how Tressel game plans and schemes, and I see good things happening on Saturday in The Horseshoe against Michigan.

I'll call Ohio State 23, Michigan 10. Enjoy the game Bucks fans, it will be one that you will never forget. GO BUCKS!!!!!!!!!