My Cubbies' Off-Season
I'm throwing in a little baseball hot stove action today, since I've started to think about what my Chicago Cubs might do this off-season. The free agent signing period starts on Sunday, November 12th, and I doubt that I'll be much into baseball for a while once I wake up on Sunday morning. Keep in mind that there are 84 million different scenarios out there, and that these are just one man's thoughts.
First off, the Cubs situation is pretty atrocious right now. The Cubs elected not to lock up 3B Aramis Ramirez this past summer, and two weeks ago he opted out of his contract and is now a free agent. I've heard that the front runners for signing Ramirez are the Angels, with the Cubs still being in the mix. CF Juan Pierre is also a free agent, so there is currently a hole in center as well. The starting pitching is of course up in the air, because Kerry Wood is also a FA and who really ever knows what the heck is going on with Mark Prior's elbow.
So the Cubs really need 2 starting pitchers, a 3B, a CF, a SS or 2B and maybe even a LF because Matt Murton wasn't too great last year in full time duty. The bullpen was actually very good last year, as Michael Wuertz, Bobby Howry, Scott Eyre and Co. were effective last year. Ryan Dempster as a closer is still a debatable issue, but he's been relatively serviceable for the past 2 seasons.
So where do we really begin? I guess we should identify who the big time FA's are and then develop a reasonable wish list of players that the Cubs could feasibly sign. The biggest names available are OF/2B Alfonso Soriano, LF Carlos Lee, SPs Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, 1B/SS Nomar Garciaparra, SP Adam Eaton, CF Gary Matthews Jr., SPs Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, OF Luis Gonzalez, and Japanese imports SP Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa, and 3B Akinori Otsuka.
I think the first order of business is to get a big time bat that will help replace the possible loss of 3B Aramis Ramirez. I am foreseeing Ramirez in Anaheim next season, so I believe it is a foregone conclusion that he is not going to be a part of the Cubs future. Soriano will be seeking a 5 to 7 year deal, that will likely be in the neighborhood of 15 million per season. I don't have a problem with those numbers, and I would love to see the Cubs get him. But I'd want the Cubs to sign him only if he agrees to play 2B again....which I don't think would be a problem. Adding Soriano would give the Cubs the premiere leadoff hitter with great power and speed, which is what the Cubs haven't had in quite some time. (Another decent option could be a trade for Atlanta 2B Marcus Giles, who has reportedly been on the trading block but is a FA after 2007).
To fill the void at CF, I would sign ex-Padre Dave Roberts. He is also a guy who brings a lot of speed to a team, and can also handle the bat well and be a big part of playing small ball, which the Cubs haven't been able to do for 10 years either. So with Soriano at leadoff and Dave Roberts as the CF and in the 2 hole, but all of the sudden you've spent nearly 20 million dollars and still have holes at 3B and could use a starting pitcher or two.
This kind of goes against conventional wisdom, but I'd sign Luis Gonzalez to a two-year deal. Gonzo is a great clubhouse guy and would play left, and this would allow you to platoon Murton with either Jones in right or with Gonzo in Left, depending on pitching matchups. Gonzo really wouldn't cost that much to sign, as he could probably be landed for 3 or 4 per season. Now we're looking at having about 22 mill on the books.
I'd also go after Adam Eaton as soon as possible. If Barry Zito, Suppan and Jason Schmidt fly off the board early, then Eaton's price inflates dramatically in an all of the sudden thin pitchers market. So if you can sign Eaton early, you'll probably be looking at a 3 year deal for about 20 mill, or 6.5 to 7 mill a year. This gets your new payroll to roughly 28 mill of new payroll, but you now have to try to find one last starter and a 3B.
So if this all shakes out, you're still needing a 3B and could use a left-handed bat in the lineup as well. The perfect fit here would be Aubrey Huff. Huff is a .300, 20-25 home run type that would fit nicely into the Cubs lineup, and I'd prefer to have him hit cleanup behind Derrek Lee rather than Jacque Jones. Huff would probably be about a 5 or 6 million per signing, but he would be the perfect solution for third.
To round out the perfect bench (with John Mabry already on the pine for 07), I'd add Rich Aurilia. Aurilia, 35, is still very good with the glove and could play some 2b and 1b in order to give D. Lee and Soriano days off. Aurilia would be another 2 mill on the books, but would really give the bench phenomenal versatility.
With 35 mill in estimated new payroll, you still have to find another pitcher. I'd look at Randy Wolf or Miguel Batista, as you could probably sign these guys to a 1 or 2 year deal for about 3 mill per. I like Wolf, as he would be a crafty veteran lefty who has good upside but also had TJ surgery just over 2 years ago.
Now we've added nearly 39 million dollars in new payroll, and this outlook isn't sounding as feasible as it once did. But you have to remember the Cubs were looking at spending about 20 million before the loss of Ramirez to FA, so it's not ridiculously far fetched. Ramirez' salary was for 13 mill for this year, so we may be a little over budget, but that's okay, the Tribune has deep pockets.
The lineup would be: 1. Soriano, 2. Dave Roberts, 3. Derrek Lee, 4. Huff, 5. Jones, 6. Barrett, 7. Gonzo/Murton, 8. Izturis. The pitching staff would be 1. Zambrano, 2. Eaton, 3. Rich Hill, 4. Wolf, 5. Whoever (Donald Veal, Prior, Sean Marshall?).
Either way, this is a huge off-season for the Cubs and failing to land at least one marquee FA (Soriano, Carlos Lee) and a couple of other key components would lead to disaster for the Cubs. Keep in mind they are now fighting the White Sox to be "Chicago's team" and not by not putting a quality team on the field in 07 would be a critical blow to northside fans.

1 Comments:
The Rangers are not going to let Eaton go....The GM is pretty high on bringing him back...
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